Bayes' theorem
Updates a probability when you learn something new. History: published 1763 after Thomas Bayes's death.
How to work it out
- 1
The statement:
- 2
Updates a probability when you learn something new.
- 3
Below, the numbers in the table are computed by this site from the definition, not copied.
LaTeX source of the formulas on this page
\[ P(A\mid B) = \frac{P(B\mid A)\,P(A)}{P(B)} \]A test that is 99% sensitive and 95% specific: chance of disease after a positive test (computed)
| Prevalence | P(disease | positive) |
|---|---|
| 0.1% | 1.9% |
| 1% | 16.7% |
| 5% | 51.0% |
| 10% | 68.8% |
| 50% | 95.2% |
Questions
What is the bayes' theorem?
Updates a probability when you learn something new.
Who is the Bayes' theorem associated with?
Pierre-Simon Laplace.